An exercise of speculation:Vedanta,Adivasis, Mannar Basin and the Tamil genocide – Part 2

Protest againts Vedanta for its operations in India.

It was a quest for survive that pushed Vedanta to find another, lucrative business. In fact its plan for more than $5.8 billion to increase the Aluminium production has been rejected by the government, due to mounting international pressure to protect the Adivasis in Niyamgiri Hills[1]. The repercussion of that failure is big enough to be the mover for the challenge against Ambani’s Reliance.

 Cairn main assets in India are in Rajastan, a huge field estimated in billions of dollars. That was the jackpot for a small venture like Cairn; But to compete with Reliance, you need to be much bigger and much linked to political power. Requirements that Vedanta matches. On the other hand, to exploit Vedanta’s economy of scale, Agarwal needed to grab any possibility on the market.

The Mannar Basin oil fields were ideal. Unfortunately the Sri Lankan civil war was a major obstacle, with the fierce LTTE ready to go all way for the cause of independence. The Sri Lankan government lacked the political will to annihilate the rebels.

A march of the Balck Tigers, the LTTE special forces for suicidal attacks.

In fact 20 years ago, when the Indian Peace Keepers intervened in the fight, Colombo incredibly re-armed the rebels, just to kick out New Delhi from the island[2]. In 2005 the parties were close to a peace treaty. But while Sri Lanka was ready to devolution, the LTTE wanted a clear path to secession. Meaning: conflict could last for another generation.

So the new President Rajapaksa changed the strategy[3]: now it was complete destruction of the rebels. Why this stance wasn’t adopted earlier? Two reasons: civilian casualties involved in chasing the guerrilla forces. And India. New Delhi never really approved the elimination of the LTTE (though responsible of the killing of Rajiv Gandhi). But in 2006, the Indian position changed. Suddenly New Delhi offered complete support: maritime patrol, electronic surveillance, military and political backing (the Tamil nationalist sentiment in Tamil Nadu were controlled by the then Chief Minister, Mr Karunanidhi, a hard-core supporter of LTTE, but involved in a personal scandal during that period[4]).

In 2009 80000 Tamil civilians have been massacred on the shores of Nandikadal lagoon and in Mullivaikal.

The rest is history: from the bloody shores of the Nandikadal lagoon, 280 000 Tamil civilian come out, leaving behind possibly more than 80000 dead. The fate of the Tamil population in their land now is the one of an occupied country. The military presence is strangling any activity.

But the Mannar Basin fields are blooming. In 2013 Sri Lanka launched another bidding round, this time everybody in the sector was queuing: Exxon, Total, Gazprom, Eni[5].

Clearly the news of Cairn-Vedanta success reached the big players of oil and gas.

The question now is: who could provoke a radical change in the Indian policy towards Sri Lanka? Cairn is out of the question.

Vedanta entered the game only in 2011, when the war was over since 2 years. If you believe in conspiracy, you could suspect that Vedanta chased the deal much earlier, convinced the Indian government to intervene in its favour and Cairn to spearhead the negotiation to avoid attention.

Of course this is just an exercise of speculation.

The signing ceremony of the agreement of petroleum resources between the Government of Sri Lanka and Cairn India (Pvt. Ltd) . President Mahinda Rajapaksa, Minister of Petroleum and Petroleum Resources A.H.M. Fowzie and Indrajith Benerjee, Chief Finance Officer and Ajay Gupta Head of Commercial and New Business of Cairn India .
Photo Sudath Silva

[1] http://www.thehindu.com/news/vedantas-refinery-expansion-plan-rejected-faces-legal-action/article841016.ece

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[2] http://www.epw.in/commentary/sri-lanka-s-arming-ltte-against-ipkf-mystery-kobbekaduwa-s-death.html

[3] https://srilankanquest.wordpress.com/2012/06/23/the-pillars-of-rajapakses-wisdomindian-support-crash-the-ltte-and-no-stop-business/

[4] https://srilankanquest.wordpress.com/2012/09/07/the-man-who-sold-the-tamilskarunanidhithe-iv-eelam-war-and-the-2g-spectrum-scam/

[5] http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-02-26/exxon-total-study-sri-lanka-oil-reserves-ahead-of-biggest-sale.html

The Sri Lankan guide for genocide: a case study for future war criminals

More than 80000 Tamil civilians were killed during the last attacks of the Sri Lankan civil war.

One may be tempted to say that it is not the first case of impunity, not even in recent history. True: in Syria for example there are concurrent narratives of propaganda blaming alternatively the government and the rebels. But the novelty in respect of Sri Lanka is the absence of competitive perspectives. It is well known that China protects Sri Lanka; a little less divulged is the Indian protection of Sri Lanka. But the real point is that the West is actually not interested in accusing Sri Lanka. The US made very bland recommendations to Colombo, in comparison what is at stake. The impression is that the Sri Lankan government shall be charged for mishandling the behaviour of its troops. The boys went too far in certain circumstances, but we don’t have the political will to scold our naughty soldiers.

500 000 Tamil civilians were chased out,through shelling and starvation.

The accusation is far from this insipid criticism: the government of Sri Lanka launched a heavy military offensive against hundreds of thousands of civilians. Again, it’s better to have clear in mind that we are not speaking of isolated episodes: the plan was to bring war in the middle of Tamil inhabited areas. The operation was designed to bring havoc in every Tamil house. At the peak of the Vanni operation, almost half a million of people has been chased, starved and bombed out. It is less about the casualties and more about the intentions. The carnage of 80000 civilians is still not the most horrible part of the truth. Soldiers massively brainwashed and put under extreme psychological stress, can eventually go crazy and out of control. This is still criminal and to blame. But the Sri Lankan case is worst: the government planned to massacre the civilians. We are not discussing episodes of crossfire: we are accusing the government of Sri Lanka of heavy shelling on harmless population. Repetitively. It was a decision, it was planned.

The silence of the United Nations is a crucial accomplice in the massacres.

And the United Nations, the government of USA, UK, India, France, Norway and Japan know what happened. The UN actually published a report where it estimates at 40000 the number of civilian casualties[1]. Moreover an internal inquiry from the UN provided even more critical observations about the accomplice negligence[2].

New Delhi provided military intelligence, electronic surveillance and field support on the ground: India was informed in real time. Actually, it was New Delhi that was informing Colombo about the development of action.

Now such carnage won’t be sanctioned.

Why? Several reasons for the convenience of geopolitical equilibrium. We have some suspicions that the oil discovery in the LTTE[3] controlled area could have been a game changer, especially for India (with Vedanta and Cairn) and European countries, like the UK (again with Cairn and Vedanta, both London-listed), France (with Total); but also Malaysia, with its powerful Tamil presence, was involved through Petronas[4].

The estimated reserves of the Mannar Basin oil field are up to a billion barrels.

Aside this allegation, the undisputed outcome is that Sri Lanka will walk away from a planned massacre with total impunity, because it made the right diplomatic move. Namely, it sought agreement with every power involved. With the US, Colombo justified the operation with war on terror (it was actually a civil war). With China, it sold out a port facility (to be included in the String of Pearls). With the other Sri Lanka exchanged attractive economic deals (the exploration rights have been ceded at bargaining price). In fact during the final phase of the war, the duo Kouchner-Miliband improvised a timid protest[5], but already in 2011 France was pledging support to Sri Lanka[6] (in 2012 Paris collaborated with Sri Lankan secret service in the extra-judiciary killing of an Ex-LTTE member Parithi[7] and in 2013 Total is ready to join the Mannar Basin deal[8]), while UK was deeply compromised with Colombo for arm trade (see the scandal that led to the resignation of Defence minister Liam Fox[9]) and economic interest (Cameron lobbied in favour of Cairn and Vedanta with Indian government[10]).

This episode will establish an important precedent in international jurisprudence: heavy diplomacy with all the parties, with all the regional and global powers will give you clearance on everything you do. Everything.

Mullivaikkal Massacre May 2009

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[1] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Report_of_the_Secretary-General’s_Panel_of_Experts_on_Accountability_in_Sri_Lanka

[2] http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-20308610

[3] http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-17337054

[4] http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703922504576272110507300534.html

[5] http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YIDds-VcRNk

[6] http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ARFAkUSuBoA

[7] http://www.colombotelegraph.com/index.php/sri-lankan-state-terrorism-spreads-to-paris-france/

[8] http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-02-26/exxon-total-study-sri-lanka-oil-reserves-ahead-of-biggest-sale.html

[9] http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2011/oct/14/liam-fox-resignation-adam-werritty

[10] http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/energy/8334832/David-Cameron-intervenes-for-Cairn-and-Vodafone-in-India.html

Old colonial games: the French chapter

France became the global defender of peace and international justice when it antagonized the USA for the war in Iraq. Legions of citizens looked at Paris as the guardian of civilization: again the nation of liberte egalite fraternite stood against the brutal, warmongering forces which regularly try to strangle the universal values of citizenship and human rights. Very well, nice, lovely. Only, France didn’t oppose USA for those reasons; it is true that they considered the war in Iraq as unlawful: but the big problem was that they were excluded from the loot, not the war itself!

In fact France is not against colonial imperialism: it was one of the major colonial forces in the past; what France object is to be left behind in the race. In Iraq Paris could clearly see that the Iraqi oil was going all in American pipes. Mon Dieu! Never again!

So when the Arab spring shook the region, France was more than ready to invade another country and to plug French pipe in the Libyan oil wells. The war in Mali signifies a new commitment of France in Africa. Mali’s undersoil is supposed to contain uranium, oil, gas and gold[1]; it is also a neighbour of Nigeria, which has an increasing agitated scenario by its own Islam groups[2]. Whatever the reason, France is on the move to re-assert its sphere of influence[3].

France and UK foreign ministers Kouchner and Miliband meet Sri Lanka’s President Rajapaksa.

So I have a rule of thumb: if you see a French diplomat on the move, ask yourself what business is in sight. During the last days of the Eelam War, we saw Kouchner and Miliband (respectively France and UK foreign ministers) running to make pressure on Colombo’s government. What kind of pressure? Well some photographic posing, speeches in favour of human rights and the rule of law. In brief, absolutely nothing. Now, Great Britain has very clear economic interests: they sell weapons to Sri Lanka and they are actively involved in the oil exploration in the Mannar Basin. Cairn and Vedanta are listed in London, though they are Indian companies. But France will remain seated while others are making money in the usual colonial way? Mon Dieu, impossible!

LTTE member Parithi Killed in Paris, 2011

Last year a former LTTE leader (the secessionist Tamil movement, defeated in 2009 with the massacre of 80 000 civilians),  Nadaraja Matheetharan alias Parithi was killed in Paris by agents of the Sri Lankan secret services[4]. My big question was: how France can allow such a move on its soil? Especially after Sri Lanka should maintain quite a low profile with the international community and the West… What happened?

Well Cairn and Vedanta don’t hold an exclusive of exploration: they have concession for ONE zone. In the 2013 Sri Lanka will organize another round of auctions. Which are the front-runners? Exxon and Total[5]. I think we’ll hear a lot of noise in Geneva about committee and votes, and alignment, and new resolution and all this sort of empty talking. I suspect that the murder of Parithi was a “gesture of good will” from France in the perspective of the oil exploration rights bidding. Human rights declaration is not worth the paper is written on if you don’t have the political will to enforce it. Mon Dieu, colonial times are over, can can’t interfere in internal matters, we only give wise, impotent advices. Of course the farcical clash of interest is merely superficial: the government of Sri Lanka can show its citizens and supporters that they stand against the old colonial power, the European countries can show their own citizens, they stand for the right cause, but diplomatic route will take time. And we have plenty of time, don’t we? History is not written in a day, oil contracts are. Anything else left to discuss in Geneva?

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[1] http://www.globalresearch.ca/the-war-on-mali-what-you-should-know/5319093

[2] http://warisacrime.org/content/us-hands-mali

[3] http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-01-17/us-drones-boots-arrive-mali

[4] http://tamilinsight.com/mypress/content/suspect-implies-sri-lankan-involvement-parithi-murder-le-parisien;

http://www.srilankamirror.com/news/4050-paris-protest-against-parithi-killing;

http://www.defence.lk/new.asp?fname=Two_charged_for_killing_top_LTTE_leader_in_Paris_20121115_04;

[5] http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-02-26/exxon-total-study-sri-lanka-oil-reserves-ahead-of-biggest-sale.html

Sri Lanka killing fields are also drilling oil: India and Sri Lanka’s alliance on counter-insurgency

Adivasis revolutionary fighters

What is the biggest threat to India’s security? You could think of further terrorist operations orchestrated by their arch-enemy Pakistan, the so called containment strategy of China with the String of Pearls, but no, you would be wrong. Surely the Indian armed forces and the RAW, the secret service are taking into account these issues as future menaces. But the current, biggest threat to internal security is the Maoist guerilla of the Naxalites, which count amongst its file indigenous warriors armed with bows and arrows. Members of the Adivasis, the indigenous ethnicity of India, more than 80 millions, are fighting back against the oppression by the central government and joined the Maoist militia in several states. The some of the Adivasis are tired of being discriminated and most of all expropriated of their land rights.

Adivasis’s rally

And New Delhi, the biggest democracy of the world, the strong ally of the good Western government amongst the dodgy, authoritarian Asian states, responded with a responsible, measured, contained military operations, called Green Hunt. In collaboration with the regular forces there are also paramilitary troupes, funded by private stakeholders. These are the best practices exported by the USA during the Afghanistan and Iraq wars and we should admire the consistency of India in aligning itself with the best Western policies.

Adivasis’ protest against Vedanta

You may ask why the Indian government is so upset with indigenous populations, who lived for millennia in their forest, with unchanged habits and astonishingly sustainable behaviour, why they are fighting these groups rather than picking them up as global models? Easy to answer, it is the case that they live where there are enormous reserve of metals and minerals. And given the needs of the growing Indian economy and the worldwide prices, many companies are salivating at the idea of grabbing those mines. In particular the giant Vedanta secured vast concessions. And they want to exploit them, so they supported this massive campaign to evict the Adivasis from their property.

Sri Lanka Defence minister Gotabaya Rajapaksa, with alleged blood stains on his shirt.

A generous offer of consulting about the matters arrived from Sri Lanka. Gotabaya Rajapaksa, brother of the president Mahinda and plenipotentiary minister of Defence, not to mention acclaimed leader of the army and potential war criminal for the massacres of 2009, offered his help¹.

Mr Rajapaksa exposed his rationale: we have matured an extensive experience in counter-insurgency and we learned how to deal with fighters mingled with civilians. You have only to control the media and position yourself wisely in the international scenario, then you can do whatever you want. Seriously, you can slaughter hundreds of thousands (yes, around 3 times the victims in Sirya) of civilians and nobody will mind your business.

If you think that I’m exaggerating, many Indian commentators thoroughly studied the Rajapaksas’ strategy and compiled a brief guideline that is precisely mentioning control over the media, international relations and steel determination to achieve the goal, regardless of civilian casualties².

Gen. Bikram-Singh visits Sri Lanka President Mahinda Rajapaksa.

Finally Rajapaksa can offer an already integrated plan of action: Sri Lankan and Indian forces not only conducted joint operations in the past. During the IV Eelam war, military officer from the Indian forces were actually on the field, monitoring, observing, advising and cooperating with the Sri Lanka’s Army. New Delhi is perfectly aware of what happened in 2009 and the fate of the so called “brethren” Tamil. Tamil Nadu politics is based on the support to the Tamils on the other side of the Strait. At least this is the main characteristic of one of the most important politician, Mr Karunanidhi, who was Chief Minister of Tamil Nadu during the final days of the war and who didn’t move a finger to safe his beloved bretheren because was involved in a massive scandal of corruption.

In a matter of days, India answered, that, yes, they are quite interested in the Sri Lankan offer to train them on counter-insurgency. Quoting Gen. Singh: “With significant experience on both sides, we have a lot to learn each other and we look forward to reinforcing our cooperation in the military domain further”³.

Sri Lanka granted exploration right to Cairn back in 2008

A final note: in the Mannar Basin, offshore from the coast controlled by the LTTE and scenario of the massive, brutal counter-offensive of the Sri Lankan army, in which almost 440 000 civilians have been chased like wild animals for months, it has been found oil.

And guess who is taking control of those oil field? You’ll never get it. It’s Vedanta again!

So Vedanta is conducting paramilitary operations in India to evict Adivasis, and then it turned to Sri Lanka to expropriate the Tamils because of the oil, using the ruthless Rajapaksa regime as (happy) executioner of the dirty job. If it was a Hollywood movie, you had say that the figure of the evil company exploiting natural resources and killing poor indigenous would have been too clichè to be true. As usual reality is more surprising than fiction, much more.

290 000 Tamil civilians come out from the last siege of the Sri Lankan army.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

1http://www.colombopage.com/archive_12B/Dec31_1356934208CH.php

2http://www.indiandefencereview.com/spotlights/lessons-from-the-war-in-sri-lanka/2/

3http://www.tamilnet.com/art.html?catid=79&artid=35909

The man who sold the Tamils:Karunanidhi,the IV Eelam War and the 2G Spectrum Scam

In 2008 the government of Sri Lanka launched the Wanni operation, a final offensive to eliminate the LTTE in their last stronghold in the Northern provinces. President Rajapaksa has been able to convince India of the necessity to get the rid of the LTTE. Of course it wasn’t too difficult to remind the assassination of Rajiv Gandhi to the Congress Party led by his wife, Sonia Gandhi. But the intricacies of Indian politics were shielding the Tigers cause. In fact India was equally distant by a secession as well as by a complete elimination of Tamil nationalism. But Rajapaksa found convincing arguments (they are secrets, but we discover some facts that can shed light,at least on a couple of them. More about this in the incoming posts) and India sided with Colombo, providing military intelligence and political back up: in fact New Delhi protected Sri Lanka in front of the international community.

A displaced Tamil woman holds her baby at Manic farm in the northern Sri Lankan district of Vavuniya on May 7, 2009.
courtesy AFP PHOTO/PEDRO UGARTE/Getty Images

India didn’t confronted what happened in the Mullivaikal and in the rest of the No Fire Zone and the West basically left the case as a matter under the sphere of influence of New Delhi: it was a subcontinent affair. So the decision of eliminating the LTTE was taken and not much could have been done to change it. But of course the means to achieve that goal were many. Rajapaksa decided to go the hard way, with the intent of teaching the Tamils a lesson, to keep them in their place for the future. Of course this course of action could have been highly debatable. Especially if you consider Tamil Nadu. In the first place, what it is considered right in the far North and Hindi speaking New Delhi, not necessarily coincides with the sentiment of the South Dravidian Madras. 60 millions of Tamils on this side of the Strait have a very different opinion and feel much closer to their brethren on the island. Further on the ruling party in Tamil Nadu,DMK, was also a pivotal ally of the Congress in the national government. And the leader of DMK, Mr Karunanidhi was an open supporter of the LTTE and of the creation of an independent and sovereign Tamil Eelam. In the 1985 he established TESO (Tamil Eelam Supporters Organization) and recently he has been active in advocating again for the cause¹.

Former Tamil Nadu Mr Matuvel Karunanidhi with Congress’ Party Leader Sonia Gandhi and India’s Prime Minister Mr Manmohan Singh
courtesy srilankanguardian.org

In the last stage of the IV Eelam War You would expect a vigorous campaign in defence of the Tamils and of their most elemental rights. He spent a political career fighting for the cause, even too much for his critics; his friendship with Prabhakaran was a source of controversies. He championed so much for his people and finally he had the opportunity to protect them. But nothing happened. India gave green light to the final assault and DMK remained quiet. Why?

 Well Karunanidhi is a controversial personality for two reason: one for his strenuous backing of the separatist group. The other is for nepotism. And in 2008 on the biggest scandals in the scandal infested Indian politics broke out: the 2G Spectrum scam. Essentially politicians sold at bargain prices frequencies to telecom operators in exchange of personal favours. The national audit commission (CAG), in charge of investigating about the case, calculated the damage for the country in the order of $ 30 billions². The scandal was big and involved many politicians, civil servants and business. But two politicians in particular were at the center of the scandal: Mr A.Raja³ and Mrs M.K.Kanimozhi⁴.

M.K.Kanimozhi and her father, M:Karunanidhi

It is worthwile to say that both belong to the DMK and that Mrs M.K.Kanimozhi is also daughter of the Tamils’ rights guarantor, Mr Karunanidhi. It is speculated that the scandal weakened so much the DMK and its leader, that when in 2009 the worst of the IV Eelam War was happening, he didn’t have any chip to bargain for⁵.

The only evidences we have are these: that Karunanidhi’s family was involved in the scandal and that he was Chief Minister of Tamil Nadu during the last phase of the war. And that he remained quiet.

Recently he has been quite vocal in accusing the Sri Lankan government of war crimes. We couldn’t agree more with him, except that now he is talking as an activist, appealing to people in power. When himself was in power, he didn’t say a word. I couldn’t feel more distant from this.

M.K.Kanimozhi sought to revive the Tamil Eelam Supporters Organisation (TESO) in August 2012.
Courtesy: R.Ragu / The Hindu

 

 

1http://www.thehindu.com/news/states/tamil-nadu/article3821764.ece

2http://cag.gov.in/html/reports/civil/2010-11_19PA/Telecommunication%20Report.pdf

3http://ibnlive.in.com/news/raja-likely-to-be-arrested-in-2g-scam-case/142180-3.html

4http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/Enough-proof-to-nail-Karunas-wife-Kanimozhi-in-2G-scam-ED-tells-JPC/articleshow/14659193.cms

5http://articles.timesofindia.indiatimes.com/2012-07-29/coimbatore/32923177_1_tamil-eelam-supporters-organisation-tamil-nationalist-leader-sri-lankan